Ukraine: Putin's desire to install a puppet government draws ...

Putin has said he wants a new regime in Ukraine. His inspiration may come from a surprising historical source. Menu Close Home Edition Africa Australia Canada Canada(français) España France Global Indonesia NewZealand UnitedKingdom UnitedStates Edition: Availableeditions Global Getnewsletter Becomeanauthor Signupasareader Signin SergeiGuneyev/EPA-EFE AnastasiiaKudlenko,SOAS,UniversityofLondon Author AnastasiiaKudlenko ERCProjectCoordinator,SOAS,UniversityofLondon Disclosurestatement AnastasiiaKudlenkodoesnotworkfor,consult,ownsharesinorreceivefundingfromanycompanyororganisationthatwouldbenefitfromthisarticle,andhasdisclosednorelevantaffiliationsbeyondtheiracademicappointment. Partners SOAS,UniversityofLondonprovidesfundingasamemberofTheConversationUK. Viewallpartners Email Twitter Facebook LinkedIn WhatsApp Messenger VladimirPutin’sdisdainforUkraine’spresidentVolodymyrZelenskyreacheditsapexonFebruary25inabizarrespeech,wherehereferredtotheleadershipofUkraineas“agangofdrugaddictsandneo-Nazis”.Putinalsospokeabouthisdesireforanewregimeinthecountry.Manywereleftwonderinghowhewouldachievetheregimechangeandgoaboutinstallingamoreagreeablegovernment. Evenbeforehelaunchedafull-scaleinvasionofUkraine,manyobserversinvokedhistorytomakesenseofPutin’sintentions.Somevoicedconcernsoverthepossibilityofa“newYalta”,inreferencetothe1945YaltaConferencethatdividedEurope.intoeasternandwesternspheresofinfluence.OthersraisedthepossibilityofanewMunich,afterthe1938Munichagreement,synonymouswiththepolicyofappeasement. ItispossiblethatPutintookinspirationfromanother,long-forgottenpieceofUkrainianhistory,andfromtheplaybookoftheBolsheviks.TheBolsheviksrepresentedaleft-wingfactionoftheRussianSocial-DemocraticWorkers’Party.UnderVladimirLenin’sleadership,theyseizedcontrolofthegovernmentinRussiainNovember1917andsubsequentlybecametherulingpartyinSovietRussiaand,later,theSovietUnion. InDecember1917inKharkiv,thesecondlargestUkrainiancity,theBolsheviksdeclaredUkraineaSovietrepublicandformedagovernment.Thisgovernmentlackedlegitimacy–earlierthatyear,Ukrainehadalreadyestablishedthehighestnationalauthority,theCentralRada(council).TheRadaenjoyedbroadsocietalsupportandhadbeenrecognisedbytheprovisionalgovernmentinRussiathatcametopowerastheresultoftheRussianRevolutionofFebruary1917. TheproblemwasthattheCentralRadadidnotrecognisetheBolsheviks’authorityoverUkraineafterthecoupinNovember1917.Thiswasreflectedinasolemnproclamation,theThirdUniversal.AdoptedbytheRada,thisdocumentestablishedtheUkrainianPeople’sRepublicasanautonomouspartofthefederationwithRussia.UkrainianautonomywasnotinBolshevikplans,buttheyknewthatdirectlydenyingtheUkrainianpeople’schoicewouldhavebeenmetwithfierceopposition.SotheydecidedtocreateapuppetgovernmentinKharkiv. ItisimportanttonotethatthecreationoftheKharkivgovernmentwasmadepossiblebytheprioroccupationofKharkivbytheBolsheviktroops.TheexistenceoftwogovernmentsinUkraineappearedtoexternalobserverslikelocalinfighting,whileinrealitytheKharkivgovernmentwascontrolledbytheBolsheviksfromRussia.TheBolsheviksultimatelylaunchedanassaultontheUkrainianPeople’sRepublicinKyiv,leadingtheCentralRadatofleethecountry. WhilewemayneverknowwhetherPutintookinspirationfromtheBolshevikstolaunchhisattackonUkraine’ssovereignty,it’seasytoseethesimilaritiestotheeventsof1917. Propagandamachine TheeventsofDecember1917alsooffersomeinsightastohowtherecentinvasionwassuccessfullysoldtothemajorityoftheRussianpopulation. ThosefollowingRussianmediainrecentmonthswillhavenoticedtheconcernamongRussianauthoritiesaboutUkraine’sgrowinghostilitytowardstheself-proclaimedrepublicsofDonetskandLuhansk.UkrainedeniedRussianaccusationsofabuild-upofUkrainiantroopsandintensifiedshellingneartheDonbasborder. ButthiswasoflittleimportanceforPutin’sdomesticaudience,largelyundertheinfluenceoftheRussianpropagandamachine.LargeswathesofUkrainianpopulationwerealsosubjecttothisinfluence,partlyduetotheeaseofaccessingRussianmedia. Suchdomesticjustificationwasalsoimportantin1917.Then,likein2022,presentingthewarasaninternalmattersignalledtotheworldthattheconflicthadtobehandledwithoutexternalintervention.Interestingly,theCentralRadawasabletoreturntoKyivwiththesupportofGermantroopsinthespringof1918,soexternalplayerswerenotfullyexcluded. CouldPutinreplaceVolodymyrZelenskywithapuppetpresident? JohannaGeron/EPA-EFE Alessonfromhistory Despitethesimilarities,PutinisunlikelytorepeatthesuccessofhisBolshevikpredecessorsininstallingapuppetgovernmentandhavingitrecognisedoutsideofRussia,foratleasttworeasons. First,theUkrainianrepublicin1917didnothaveaproperarmy.Ukrainein2022isaverydifferentstory.Hardenedbytheyears-longwarinDonbas,whereRussiaismorethanasponsorbutlessthanaparty,Ukrainehasconsiderablystrengtheneditssecurityinstitutions. What’smore,theavailabilityofwesternintelligenceonRussia’sintentionsallowedUkrainetoamassaseriousarsenalofweaponsandammunitionaheadoftheinvasion.ThegrowingterritorialdefenceandvolunteerunitsalsoplayedakeyrolealongsideUkraine’sarmedforcesinderailingtheKremlin’splanforBlitzkrieg. Second,theexistenceofsocialmediaandtheinternethasmadeRussia’swaragainstUkrainemuchmorethanadomesticmatter.WhilethedomesticaudienceinRussiaisstillcaptive,thebroadcastingofthewarandallegedwarcrimesbyRussiantroopsonUkrainiansoilismakingitimpossiblefortheinternationalcommunitytostandaside.AppalledatthesightofthebarbaricbloodshedinthemiddleofEurope,peoplehavecomeoutinthousandstopressuretheirgovernmentstosupportUkraine. Evenin1918,theUkrainiansdemonstratedthatashort-termvictorydoesnotamounttothesuccesstheBolsheviksenvisaged.In2022,Ukrainehasmoreglobalsupport.ThemorePutinpersistswiththewar,themorehewillpushRussiaintoisolation. 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