Risk - Wikipedia

Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, ... Risk FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia Jumptonavigation Jumptosearch Probabilityoflossofsomethingofvalue Forotheruses,seeRisk(disambiguation). Insimpleterms,riskisthepossibilityofsomethingbadhappening.[1]Riskinvolvesuncertaintyabouttheeffects/implicationsofanactivitywithrespecttosomethingthathumansvalue(suchashealth,well-being,wealth,propertyortheenvironment),oftenfocusingonnegative,undesirableconsequences.[2]Manydifferentdefinitionshavebeenproposed.Theinternationalstandarddefinitionofriskforcommonunderstandingindifferentapplicationsis“effectofuncertaintyonobjectives”.[3] Theunderstandingofrisk,themethodsofassessmentandmanagement,thedescriptionsofriskandeventhedefinitionsofriskdifferindifferentpracticeareas(business,economics,environment,finance,informationtechnology,health,insurance,safety,securityetc).Thisarticleprovideslinkstomoredetailedarticlesontheseareas.Theinternationalstandardforriskmanagement,ISO31000,providesprinciplesandgenericguidelinesonmanagingrisksfacedbyorganizations.[4] Contents 1Definitionsofrisk 1.1OxfordEnglishDictionary 1.2InternationalOrganizationforStandardization 1.3Other 2Practiceareas 2.1Businessrisk 2.2Economicrisk 2.3Environmentalrisk 2.4Financialrisk 2.5Healthrisk 2.6Health,safety,andenvironmentrisks 2.7Informationtechnologyrisk 2.8Insurancerisk 2.9Occupationalrisk 2.10Projectrisk 2.11Safetyrisk 2.12Securityrisk 3Assessmentandmanagementofrisk 3.1Riskmanagement 3.2Riskassessment 3.3Riskidentification 3.4Riskanalysis 3.5Riskevaluationandriskcriteria 4Descriptionsofrisk 4.1Triplets 4.2Probabilitydistributions 4.3Expectedvalues 4.4Volatility 4.5Outcomefrequencies 4.6Relativerisk 5Psychologyofrisk 5.1Fearasintuitiveriskassessment 5.2Fear,anxietyandrisk 5.3Consequencesofanxiety 5.4Dreadrisk 5.5Anxietyandjudgmentalaccuracy 5.6Humanfactors 5.7Psychologyofrisktaking 6Otherconsiderations 6.1Riskanduncertainty 6.2MildVersusWildRisk 6.3Riskattitude,appetiteandtolerance 6.4Riskandautonomy 7Listofrelatedbooks 8Seealso 9References 10Bibliography 10.1Referredliterature 10.2Books 10.3Articlesandpapers 11Externallinks Definitionsofrisk[edit] OxfordEnglishDictionary[edit] Firefightersareexposedtorisksoffireandbuildingcollapseduringtheirwork TheOxfordEnglishDictionary(OED)citestheearliestuseofthewordinEnglish(inthespellingofrisquefromitsFrenchoriginal,'risque')asof1621,andthespellingasriskfrom1655.Whileincludingseveralotherdefinitions,theOED3rdeditiondefinesriskas: (Exposureto)thepossibilityofloss,injury,orotheradverseorunwelcomecircumstance;achanceorsituationinvolvingsuchapossibility.[5] TheCambridgeAdvancedLearner’sDictionarygivesasimplesummary,definingriskas“thepossibilityofsomethingbadhappening”.[1] InternationalOrganizationforStandardization[edit] TheInternationalOrganizationforStandardization(ISO)Guide73providesbasicvocabularytodevelopcommonunderstandingonriskmanagementconceptsandtermsacrossdifferentapplications.ISOGuide73:2009definesriskas: effectofuncertaintyonobjectives Note1:Aneffectisadeviationfromtheexpected–positiveornegative. Note2:Objectivescanhavedifferentaspects(suchasfinancial,healthandsafety,andenvironmentalgoals)andcanapplyatdifferentlevels(suchasstrategic,organization-wide,project,productandprocess). Note3:Riskisoftencharacterizedbyreferencetopotentialeventsandconsequencesoracombinationofthese. Note4:Riskisoftenexpressedintermsofacombinationoftheconsequencesofanevent(includingchangesincircumstances)andtheassociatedlikelihoodofoccurrence. Note5:Uncertaintyisthestate,evenpartial,ofdeficiencyofinformationrelatedto,understandingorknowledgeof,anevent,itsconsequence,orlikelihood.[3] Thisdefinitionwasdevelopedbyaninternationalcommitteerepresentingover30countriesandisbasedontheinputofseveralthousandsubjectmatterexperts.Itwasfirstadoptedin2002.Itscomplexityreflectsthedifficultyofsatisfyingfieldsthatusethetermriskindifferentways.Somerestrictthetermtonegativeimpacts(“downsiderisks”),whileothersincludepositiveimpacts(“upsiderisks”). ISO31000:2018“Riskmanagement—Guidelines”usesthesamedefinitionwithasimplersetofnotes.[4] Other[edit] Manyotherdefinitionsofriskhavebeeninfluential: “Sourceofharm”.Theearliestuseoftheword“risk”wasasasynonymforthemucholderword“hazard”,meaningapotentialsourceofharm.ThisdefinitioncomesfromBlount’s“Glossographia”(1661)[6]andwasthemaindefinitionintheOED1st(1914)and2nd(1989)editions.Modernequivalentsreferto“unwantedevents”[7]or“somethingbadthatmighthappen”.[1] “Chanceofharm”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromJohnson’s“DictionaryoftheEnglishLanguage”(1755),andhasbeenwidelyparaphrased,including“possibilityofloss”[5]or“probabilityofunwantedevents”.[7] “Uncertaintyaboutloss”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromWillett’s“EconomicTheoryofRiskandInsurance”(1901).[8]Thislinks“risk”to“uncertainty”,whichisabroadertermthanchanceorprobability. “Measurableuncertainty”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromKnight’s“Risk,UncertaintyandProfit”(1921).[9]Itallows“risk”tobeusedequallyforpositiveandnegativeoutcomes.Ininsurance,riskinvolvessituationswithunknownoutcomesbutknownprobabilitydistributions.[10] “Volatilityofreturn”.EquivalencebetweenriskandvarianceofreturnwasfirstidentifiedinMarkovitz’s“PortfolioSelection”(1952).[11]Infinance,volatilityofreturnisoftenequatedtorisk.[12] “Statisticallyexpectedloss”.TheexpectedvalueoflosswasusedtodefineriskbyWald(1939)inwhatisnowknownasdecisiontheory.[13]TheprobabilityofaneventmultipliedbyitsmagnitudewasproposedasadefinitionofriskfortheplanningoftheDeltaWorksin1953,afloodprotectionprogramintheNetherlands.[14]ItwasadoptedbytheUSNuclearRegulatoryCommission(1975),[15]andremainswidelyused.[7] “Likelihoodandseverityofevents”.The“triplet”definitionofriskas“scenarios,probabilitiesandconsequences”wasproposedbyKaplan&Garrick(1981).[16]Manydefinitionsrefertothelikelihood/probabilityofevents/effects/lossesofdifferentseverity/consequence,e.g.ISOGuide73Note4.[3] “Consequencesandassociateduncertainty”.ThiswasproposedbyKaplan&Garrick(1981).[16]ThisdefinitionispreferredinBayesiananalysis,whichseesriskasthecombinationofeventsanduncertaintiesaboutthem.[17] “Uncertaineventsaffectingobjectives”.ThisdefinitionwasadoptedbytheAssociationforProjectManagement(1997).[18][19]WithslightrewordingitbecamethedefinitioninISOGuide73.[3] “Uncertaintyofoutcome”.ThisdefinitionwasadoptedbytheUKCabinetOffice(2002)[20]toencourageinnovationtoimprovepublicservices.Itallowed“risk”todescribeeither“positiveopportunityornegativethreatofactionsandevents”. “Asset,threatandvulnerability”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromtheThreatAnalysisGroup(2010)inthecontextofcomputersecurity.[21] “Humaninteractionwithuncertainty”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromCline(2015)[22]inthecontextofadventureeducation. Someresolvethesedifferencesbyarguingthatthedefinitionofriskissubjective.Forexample: Nodefinitionisadvancedasthecorrectone,becausethereisnoonedefinitionthatissuitableforallproblems.Rather,thechoiceofdefinitionisapoliticalone,expressingsomeone’sviewsregardingtheimportanceofdifferentadverseeffectsinaparticularsituation.[23] TheSocietyforRiskAnalysisconcludesthat“experiencehasshownthattoagreeononeunifiedsetofdefinitionsisnotrealistic”.Thesolutionis“toallowfordifferentperspectivesonfundamentalconceptsandmakeadistinctionbetweenoverallqualitativedefinitionsandtheirassociatedmeasurements.”[2] Practiceareas[edit] Theunderstandingofrisk,thecommonmethodsofmanagement,themeasurementsofriskandeventhedefinitionofriskdifferindifferentpracticeareas.Thissectionprovideslinkstomoredetailedarticlesontheseareas. Businessrisk[edit] Businessrisksarisefromuncertaintyabouttheprofitofacommercialbusinessduetounwantedeventssuchaschangesintastes,changingpreferencesofconsumers,strikes,increasedcompetition,changesingovernmentpolicy,obsolescenceetc. Businessrisksarecontrolledusingtechniquesofriskmanagement.Inmanycasestheymaybemanagedbyintuitivestepstopreventormitigaterisks,byfollowingregulationsorstandardsofgoodpractice,orbyinsurance.Enterpriseriskmanagementincludesthemethodsandprocessesusedbyorganizationstomanagerisksandseizeopportunitiesrelatedtotheachievementoftheirobjectives. Economicrisk[edit] Economicsisconcernedwiththeproduction,distributionandconsumptionofgoodsandservices.Economicriskarisesfromuncertaintyabouteconomicoutcomes.Forexample,economicriskmaybethechancethatmacroeconomicconditionslikeexchangerates,governmentregulation,orpoliticalstabilitywillaffectaninvestmentoracompany’sprospects.[24] Ineconomics,asinfinance,riskisoftendefinedasquantifiableuncertaintyaboutgainsandlosses. Environmentalrisk[edit] Environmentalriskarisesfromenvironmentalhazardsorenvironmentalissues. Intheenvironmentalcontext,riskisdefinedas“Thechanceofharmfuleffectstohumanhealthortoecologicalsystems”.[25] Environmentalriskassessmentaimstoassesstheeffectsofstressors,oftenchemicals,onthelocalenvironment.[26] Financialrisk[edit] Mainarticle:Financialrisk Financeisconcernedwithmoneymanagementandacquiringfunds.[27]Financialriskarisesfromuncertaintyaboutfinancialreturns.Itincludesmarketrisk,creditrisk,liquidityriskandoperationalrisk. Infinance,riskisthepossibilitythattheactualreturnonaninvestmentwillbedifferentfromitsexpectedreturn.[28]Thisincludesnotonly"downsiderisk"(returnsbelowexpectations,includingthepossibilityoflosingsomeoralloftheoriginalinvestment)butalso"upsiderisk"(returnsthatexceedexpectations).InKnight’sdefinition,riskisoftendefinedasquantifiableuncertaintyaboutgainsandlosses.ThiscontrastswithKnightianuncertainty,whichcannotbequantified. Financialriskmodelingdeterminestheaggregateriskinafinancialportfolio.Modernportfoliotheorymeasuresriskusingthevariance(orstandarddeviation)ofassetprices.Morerecentriskmeasuresincludevalueatrisk. Becauseinvestorsaregenerallyriskaverse,investmentswithgreaterinherentriskmustpromisehigherexpectedreturns.[29] Financialriskmanagementusesfinancialinstrumentstomanageexposuretorisk.Itincludestheuseofahedgetooffsetrisksbyadoptingapositioninanopposingmarketorinvestment. Infinancialaudit,auditriskreferstothepotentialthatanauditreportmayfailtodetectmaterialmisstatementeitherduetoerrororfraud. Healthrisk[edit] Healthrisksarisefromdiseaseandotherbiologicalhazards. Epidemiologyisthestudyandanalysisofthedistribution,patternsanddeterminantsofhealthanddisease.Itisacornerstoneofpublichealth,andshapespolicydecisionsbyidentifyingriskfactorsfordiseaseandtargetsforpreventivehealthcare. Inthecontextofpublichealth,riskassessmentistheprocessofcharacterizingthenatureandlikelihoodofaharmfuleffecttoindividualsorpopulationsfromcertainhumanactivities.Healthriskassessmentcanbemostlyqualitativeorcanincludestatisticalestimatesofprobabilitiesforspecificpopulations. Ahealthriskassessment(alsoreferredtoasahealthriskappraisalandhealth&well-beingassessment)isaquestionnairescreeningtool,usedtoprovideindividualswithanevaluationoftheirhealthrisksandqualityoflife Health,safety,andenvironmentrisks[edit] Health,safety,andenvironment(HSE)areseparatepracticeareas;however,theyareoftenlinked.Thereasonistypicallytodowithorganizationalmanagementstructures;however,therearestronglinksamongthesedisciplines.Oneofthestrongestlinksisthatasingleriskeventmayhaveimpactsinallthreeareas,albeitoverdifferingtimescales.Forexample,theuncontrolledreleaseofradiationoratoxicchemicalmayhaveimmediateshort-termsafetyconsequences,moreprotractedhealthimpacts,andmuchlonger-termenvironmentalimpacts.EventssuchasChernobyl,forexample,causedimmediatedeaths,andinthelongerterm,deathsfromcancers,andleftalastingenvironmentalimpactleadingtobirthdefects,impactsonwildlife,etc. Informationtechnologyrisk[edit] Mainarticles:ITrisk,Computersecurity,ITriskmanagement,andInformationsecurity Informationtechnology(IT)istheuseofcomputerstostore,retrieve,transmit,andmanipulatedata.ITrisk(orcyberrisk)arisesfromthepotentialthatathreatmayexploitavulnerabilitytobreachsecurityandcauseharm.ITriskmanagementappliesriskmanagementmethodstoITtomanageITrisks.ComputersecurityistheprotectionofITsystemsbymanagingITrisks. Informationsecurityisthepracticeofprotectinginformationbymitigatinginformationrisks.WhileITriskisnarrowlyfocusedoncomputersecurity,informationrisksextendtootherformsofinformation(paper,microfilm). Insurancerisk[edit] Insuranceisarisktreatmentoptionwhichinvolvesrisksharing.Itcanbeconsideredasaformofcontingentcapitalandisakintopurchasinganoptioninwhichthebuyerpaysasmallpremiumtobeprotectedfromapotentiallargeloss. Insuranceriskisoftentakenbyinsurancecompanies,whothenbearapoolofrisksincludingmarketrisk,creditrisk,operationalrisk,interestraterisk,mortalityrisk,longevityrisks,etc.[30] Theterm“risk”hasalonghistoryininsuranceandhasacquiredseveralspecialiseddefinitions,including“thesubject-matterofaninsurancecontract”,“aninsuredperil”aswellasthemorecommon“possibilityofaneventoccurringwhichcausesinjuryorloss”.[31] Occupationalrisk[edit] Mainarticle:Occupationalsafetyandhealth Occupationalhealthandsafetyisconcernedwithoccupationalhazardsexperiencedintheworkplace. TheOccupationalHealthandSafetyAssessmentSeries(OHSAS)standardOHSAS18001in1999definedriskasthe“combinationofthelikelihoodandconsequence(s)ofaspecifiedhazardouseventoccurring”.In2018thiswasreplacedbyISO45001“Occupationalhealthandsafetymanagementsystems”,whichusetheISOGuide73definition. Projectrisk[edit] Aprojectisanindividualorcollaborativeundertakingplannedtoachieveaspecificaim.Projectriskisdefinedas,"anuncertaineventorconditionthat,ifitoccurs,hasapositiveornegativeeffectonaproject’sobjectives”.Projectriskmanagementaimstoincreasethelikelihoodandimpactofpositiveeventsanddecreasethelikelihoodandimpactofnegativeeventsintheproject.[32] Safetyrisk[edit] Harborsignwarningvisitorsthatuseofthewalkwayis"atyourownrisk" Safetyisconcernedwithavarietyofhazardsthatmayresultinaccidentscausingharmtopeople,propertyandtheenvironment.Inthesafetyfield,riskistypicallydefinedasthe“likelihoodandseverityofhazardousevents”.Safetyrisksarecontrolledusingtechniquesofriskmanagement. Ahighreliabilityorganisation(HRO)involvescomplexoperationsinenvironmentswherecatastrophicaccidentscouldoccur.Examplesincludeaircraftcarriers,airtrafficcontrol,aerospaceandnuclearpowerstations.SomeHROsmanageriskinahighlyquantifiedway.Thetechniqueisusuallyreferredtoasprobabilisticriskassessment(PRA).SeeWASH-1400foranexampleofthisapproach.Theincidenceratecanalsobereducedduetotheprovisionofbetteroccupationalhealthandsafetyprogrammes[33] Securityrisk[edit] Securityisfreedomfrom,orresilienceagainst,potentialharmcausedbyothers. Asecurityriskis"anyeventthatcouldresultinthecompromiseoforganizationalassetsi.e.theunauthorizeduse,loss,damage,disclosureormodificationoforganizationalassetsfortheprofit,personalinterestorpoliticalinterestsofindividuals,groupsorotherentities."[34] Securityriskmanagementinvolvesprotectionofassetsfromharmcausedbydeliberateacts. Assessmentandmanagementofrisk[edit] Riskmanagement[edit] Mainarticles:RiskmanagementandOperationalriskmanagement Riskisubiquitousinallareasoflifeandweallmanagetheserisks,consciouslyorintuitively,whetherwearemanagingalargeorganizationorsimplycrossingtheroad.Intuitiveriskmanagementisaddressedunderthepsychologyofriskbelow. Riskmanagementreferstoasystematicapproachtomanagingrisks,andsometimestotheprofessionthatdoesthis.Ageneraldefinitionisthatriskmanagementconsistsof“coordinatedactivitiestodirectandcontrolanorganizationwithregardtorisk".[3] ISO31000,theinternationalstandardforriskmanagement,[4]describesariskmanagementprocessthatconsistsofthefollowingelements: Communicatingandconsulting Establishingthescope,contextandcriteria Riskassessment-recognisingandcharacterisingrisks,andevaluatingtheirsignificancetosupportdecision-making.Thisincludesriskidentification,riskanalysisandriskevaluation. Risktreatment-selectingandimplementingoptionsforaddressingrisk. Monitoringandreviewing Recordingandreporting Ingeneral,theaimofriskmanagementistoassistorganizationsin“settingstrategy,achievingobjectivesandmakinginformeddecisions”.[4]Theoutcomesshouldbe“scientificallysound,cost-effective,integratedactionsthat[treat]riskswhiletakingintoaccountsocial,cultural,ethical,political,andlegalconsiderations”.[35] Incontextswhererisksarealwaysharmful,riskmanagementaimsto“reduceorpreventrisks”.[35]Inthesafetyfielditaims“toprotectemployees,thegeneralpublic,theenvironment,andcompanyassets,whileavoidingbusinessinterruptions”.[36] Fororganizationswhosedefinitionofriskincludes“upside”aswellas“downside”risks,riskmanagementis“asmuchaboutidentifyingopportunitiesasavoidingormitigatinglosses”.[37]Ittheninvolves“gettingtherightbalancebetweeninnovationandchangeontheonehand,andavoidanceofshocksandcrisesontheother”.[38] Riskassessment[edit] Mainarticle:Riskassessment Riskassessmentisasystematicapproachtorecognisingandcharacterisingrisks,andevaluatingtheirsignificance,inordertosupportdecisionsabouthowtomanagethem.ISO31000definesitintermsofitscomponentsas“theoverallprocessofriskidentification,riskanalysisandriskevaluation”.[4] Riskassessmentcanbequalitative,semi-quantitativeorquantitative:[4] Qualitativeapproachesarebasedonqualitativedescriptionsofrisksandrelyonjudgementtoevaluatetheirsignificance. Semi-quantitativeapproachesusenumericalratingscalestogrouptheconsequencesandprobabilitiesofeventsintobandssuchas“high”,“medium”and“low”.Theymayuseariskmatrixtoevaluatethesignificanceofparticularcombinationsofprobabilityandconsequence. Quantitativeapproaches,includingQuantitativeriskassessment(QRA)andprobabilisticriskassessment(PRA),estimateprobabilitiesandconsequencesinappropriateunits,combinethemintoriskmetrics,andevaluatethemusingnumericalriskcriteria. Thespecificstepsvarywidelyindifferentpracticeareas. Riskidentification[edit] Riskidentificationis“theprocessoffinding,recognizingandrecordingrisks”.It“involvestheidentificationofrisksources,events,theircausesandtheirpotentialconsequences.”[3] ISO31000describesitasthefirststepinariskassessmentprocess,precedingriskanalysisandriskevaluation.[4]Insafetycontexts,whererisksourcesareknownashazards,thisstepisknownas“hazardidentification”.[39] Therearemanydifferentmethodsforidentifyingrisks,including:[40] Checklistsortaxonomiesbasedonpastdataortheoreticalmodels. Evidence-basedmethods,suchasliteraturereviewsandanalysisofhistoricaldata. Team-basedmethodsthatsystematicallyconsiderpossibledeviationsfromnormaloperations,e.g.HAZOP,FMEAandSWIFT. Empiricalmethods,suchastestingandmodellingtoidentifywhatmighthappenunderparticularcircumstances. Techniquesencouragingimaginativethinkingaboutpossibilitiesofthefuture,suchasscenarioanalysis. Expert-elicitationmethodssuchasbrainstorming,interviewsandaudits. Sometimes,riskidentificationmethodsarelimitedtofindinganddocumentingrisksthataretobeanalysedandevaluatedelsewhere.However,manyriskidentificationmethodsalsoconsiderwhethercontrolmeasuresaresufficientandrecommendimprovements.Hencetheyfunctionasstand-alonequalitativeriskassessmenttechniques. Riskanalysis[edit] Riskanalysisisaboutdevelopinganunderstandingoftherisk.ISOdefinesitas“theprocesstocomprehendthenatureofriskandtodeterminethelevelofrisk”.[3]IntheISO31000riskassessmentprocess,riskanalysisfollowsriskidentificationandprecedesriskevaluation.However,thesedistinctionsarenotalwaysfollowed. Riskanalysismayinclude:[40] Determiningthesources,causesanddriversofrisk Investigatingtheeffectivenessofexistingcontrols Analysingpossibleconsequencesandtheirlikelihood Understandinginteractionsanddependenciesbetweenrisks Determiningmeasuresofrisk Verifyingandvalidatingresults Uncertaintyandsensitivityanalysis Riskanalysisoftenusesdataontheprobabilitiesandconsequencesofpreviousevents.Wheretherehavebeenfewsuchevents,orinthecontextofsystemsthatarenotyetoperationalandthereforehavenopreviousexperience,variousanalyticalmethodsmaybeusedtoestimatetheprobabilitiesandconsequences: Proxyoranaloguedatafromothercontexts,presumedtobesimilarinsomeaspectsofrisk. Theoreticalmodels,suchasMonteCarlosimulationandQuantitativeriskassessmentsoftware. Logicalmodels,suchasBayesiannetworks,faulttreeanalysisandeventtreeanalysis Expertjudgement,suchasabsoluteprobabilityjudgementortheDelphimethod. Riskevaluationandriskcriteria[edit] Riskevaluationinvolvescomparingestimatedlevelsofriskagainstriskcriteriatodeterminethesignificanceoftheriskandmakedecisionsaboutrisktreatmentactions.[40] Inmostactivities,riskscanbereducedbyaddingfurthercontrolsorothertreatmentoptions,buttypicallythisincreasescostorinconvenience.Itisrarelypossibletoeliminaterisksaltogetherwithoutdiscontinuingtheactivity.Sometimesitisdesirabletoincreaseriskstosecurevaluedbenefits.Riskcriteriaareintendedtoguidedecisionsontheseissues.[41] Typesofcriteriainclude:[40] Criteriathatdefinethelevelofriskthatcanbeacceptedinpursuitofobjectives,sometimesknownasriskappetite,andevaluatedbyrisk/rewardanalysis.[12] Criteriathatdeterminewhetherfurthercontrolsareneeded,suchasbenefit-costratio. Criteriathatdecidebetweendifferentriskmanagementoptions,suchasmultiple-criteriadecisionanalysis. Thesimplestframeworkforriskcriteriaisasinglelevelwhichdividesacceptablerisksfromthosethatneedtreatment.Thisgivesattractivelysimpleresultsbutdoesnotreflecttheuncertaintiesinvolvedbothinestimatingrisksandindefiningthecriteria. Thetolerabilityofriskframework,developedbytheUKHealthandSafetyExecutive,dividesrisksintothreebands:[42] Unacceptablerisks–onlypermittedinexceptionalcircumstances. Tolerablerisks–tobekeptaslowasreasonablypracticable(ALARP),takingintoaccountthecostsandbenefitsoffurtherriskreduction. Broadlyacceptablerisks–notnormallyrequiringfurtherreduction. Descriptionsofrisk[edit] Therearemanydifferentriskmetricsthatcanbeusedtodescribeor“measure”risk. Triplets[edit] Riskisoftenconsideredtobeasetoftriplets[16](alsodescribedasavector[12]): R =< s i , p i , x i > {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=} fori=1,2,....,N where: s i {\displaystyle{\text{s}}_{\text{i}}} isascenariodescribingapossibleevent p i {\displaystyle{\text{p}}_{\text{i}}} istheprobabilityofthescenario x i {\displaystyle{\text{x}}_{\text{i}}} istheconsequenceofthescenario N {\displaystyle{\text{N}}} isthenumberofscenarioschosentodescribetherisk Thesearetheanswerstothethreefundamentalquestionsaskedbyariskanalysis: Whatcanhappen? Howlikelyisittohappen? Ifitdoeshappen,whatwouldtheconsequencesbe? Risksexpressedinthiswaycanbeshowninatableorriskregister.Theymaybequantitativeorqualitative,andcanincludepositiveaswellasnegativeconsequences. Thescenarioscanbeplottedinaconsequence/likelihoodmatrix(orriskmatrix).Thesetypicallydivideconsequencesandlikelihoodsinto3to5bands.Differentscalescanbeusedfordifferenttypesofconsequences(e.g.finance,safety,environmentetc.),andcanincludepositiveaswellasnegativeconsequences.[40] Anupdatedversion[17]recommendsthefollowinggeneraldescriptionofrisk: R = ( A,C,U,P,K ) {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=({\text{A,C,U,P,K}})} where: A {\displaystyle{\text{A}}} isaneventthatmightoccur C {\displaystyle{\text{C}}} istheconsequencesoftheevent U {\displaystyle{\text{U}}} isanassessmentofuncertainties P {\displaystyle{\text{P}}} isaknowledge-basedprobabilityoftheevent K {\displaystyle{\text{K}}} isthebackgroundknowledgethatUandParebasedon Probabilitydistributions[edit] Ifalltheconsequencesareexpressedinthesameunits(orcanbeconvertedintoaconsistentlossfunction),theriskcanbeexpressedasaprobabilitydensityfunctiondescribingthe“uncertaintyaboutoutcome”: R = p(x) {\displaystyle{\text{R}}={\text{p(x)}}} Thiscanalsobeexpressedasacumulativedistributionfunction(CDF)(orScurve[40]). Onewayofhighlightingthetailofthisdistributionisbyshowingtheprobabilityofexceedinggivenlosses,knownasacomplementarycumulativedistributionfunction,plottedonlogarithmicscales.Examplesincludefrequency-number(FN)diagrams,showingtheannualfrequencyofexceedinggivennumbersoffatalities.[40] Asimplewayofsummarisingthesizeofthedistribution’stailisthelosswithacertainprobabilityofexceedance,suchastheValueatRisk. Expectedvalues[edit] Riskisoftenmeasuredastheexpectedvalueoftheloss.Thiscombinestheprobabilitiesandconsequencesintoasinglevalue.SeealsoExpectedutility.ThesimplestcaseisabinarypossibilityofAccidentorNoaccident.Theassociatedformulaforcalculatingriskisthen: R = ( probabilityoftheaccidentoccurring ) × ( expectedlossincaseoftheaccident ) {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=({\text{probabilityoftheaccidentoccurring}})\times({\text{expectedlossincaseoftheaccident}})} Forexample,ifthereisaprobabilityof0.01ofsufferinganaccidentwithalossof$1000,thentotalriskisalossof$10,theproductof0.01and$1000. Inasituationwithseveralpossibleaccidentscenarios,totalriskisthesumoftherisksforeachscenario,providedthattheoutcomesarecomparable: R = ∑ i=1toN p i x i {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=\sum_{\text{i=1toN}}{\text{p}}_{\text{i}}{\text{x}}_{\text{i}}} (termsdefinedabove) Instatisticaldecisiontheory,theriskfunctionisdefinedastheexpectedvalueofagivenlossfunctionasafunctionofthedecisionruleusedtomakedecisionsinthefaceofuncertainty. Adisadvantageofdefiningriskastheproductofimpactandprobabilityisthatitpresumes,unrealistically,thatdecision-makersarerisk-neutral.Arisk-neutralperson'sutilityisproportionaltotheexpectedvalueofthepayoff.Forexample,arisk-neutralpersonwouldconsider20%chanceofwinning$1 millionexactlyasdesirableasgettingacertain$200,000.However,mostdecision-makersarenotactuallyrisk-neutralandwouldnotconsidertheseequivalentchoices.[12] Volatility[edit] Infinance,volatilityisthedegreeofvariationofatradingpriceovertime,usuallymeasuredbythestandarddeviationoflogarithmicreturns.Modernportfoliotheorymeasuresriskusingthevariance(orstandarddeviation)ofassetprices.Theriskisthen: R = σ {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=\sigma} Outcomefrequencies[edit] Risksofdiscreteeventssuchasaccidentsareoftenmeasuredasoutcomefrequencies,orexpectedratesofspecificlosseventsperunittime.Whensmall,frequenciesarenumericallysimilartoprobabilities,buthavedimensionsof[1/time]andcansumtomorethan1.Typicaloutcomesexpressedthiswayinclude:[43] Individualrisk-thefrequencyofagivenlevelofharmtoanindividual.[44]Itoftenreferstotheexpectedannualprobabilityofdeath.Whereriskcriteriarefertotheindividualrisk,theriskassessmentmustusethismetric. Group(orsocietalrisk)–therelationshipbetweenthefrequencyandthenumberofpeoplesufferingharm.[44] Frequenciesofpropertydamageortotalloss. Frequenciesofenvironmentaldamagesuchasoilspills. Relativerisk[edit] Inhealth,therelativeriskistheratiooftheprobabilityofanoutcomeinanexposedgrouptotheprobabilityofanoutcomeinanunexposedgroup. Psychologyofrisk[edit] Thisarticleincludesalistofgeneralreferences,butitremainslargelyunverifiedbecauseitlackssufficientcorrespondinginlinecitations.Pleasehelptoimprovethisarticlebyintroducingmoreprecisecitations.(April2020)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) Fearasintuitiveriskassessment[edit] Peoplemayrelyontheirfearandhesitationtokeepthemoutofthemostprofoundlyunknowncircumstances.Fearisaresponsetoperceiveddanger.Riskcouldbesaidtobethewaywecollectivelymeasureandsharethis"truefear"—afusionofrationaldoubt,irrationalfear,andasetofunquantifiedbiasesfromourownexperience. Thefieldofbehaviouralfinancefocusesonhumanrisk-aversion,asymmetricregret,andotherwaysthathumanfinancialbehaviourvariesfromwhatanalystscall"rational".Riskinthatcaseisthedegreeofuncertaintyassociatedwithareturnonanasset.Recognizingandrespectingtheirrationalinfluencesonhumandecisionmakingmaydomuchtoreducedisasterscausedbynaiveriskassessmentsthatpresumerationalitybutinfactmerelyfusemanysharedbiases. Fear,anxietyandrisk[edit] Accordingtoonesetofdefinitions,fearisafleetingemotionascribedtoaparticularobject,whileanxietyisatraitoffear(thisisreferringto"traitanxiety",asdistinctfromhowtheterm"anxiety"isgenerallyused)thatlastslongerandisnotattributedtoaspecificstimulus(theseparticulardefinitionsarenotusedbyallauthorscitedonthispage).[45]Somestudiesshowalinkbetweenanxiousbehaviourandrisk(thechancethatanoutcomewillhaveanunfavorableresult).[46]JosephForgasintroducedvalencebasedresearchwhereemotionsaregroupedaseitherpositiveornegative(LernerandKeltner,2000).Positiveemotions,suchashappiness,arebelievedtohavemoreoptimisticriskassessmentsandnegativeemotions,suchasanger,havepessimisticriskassessments.Asanemotionwithanegativevalence,fear,andthereforeanxiety,haslongbeenassociatedwithnegativeriskperceptions.UnderthemorerecentappraisaltendencyframeworkofJenniferLerneretal.,whichrefutesForgas'notionofvalenceandpromotestheideathatspecificemotionshavedistinctiveinfluencesonjudgments,fearisstillrelatedtopessimisticexpectations.[47] Psychologistshavedemonstratedthatincreasesinanxietyandincreasesinriskperceptionarerelatedandpeoplewhoarehabituatedtoanxietyexperiencethisawarenessofriskmoreintenselythannormalindividuals.[48]Indecision-making,anxietypromotestheuseofbiasesandquickthinkingtoevaluaterisk.Thisisreferredtoasaffect-as-informationaccordingtoClore,1983.However,theaccuracyoftheseriskperceptionswhenmakingchoicesisnotknown.[49] Consequencesofanxiety[edit] Experimentalstudiesshowthatbriefsurgesinanxietyarecorrelatedwithsurgesingeneralriskperception.[49]Anxietyexistswhenthepresenceofthreatisperceived(ManerandSchmidt,2006).[48]Asriskperceptionincreases,itstaysrelatedtotheparticularsourceimpactingthemoodchangeasopposedtospreadingtounrelatedriskfactors.[49]Thisincreasedawarenessofathreatissignificantlymoreemphasisedinpeoplewhoareconditionedtoanxiety.[50]Forexample,anxiousindividualswhoarepredisposedtogeneratingreasonsfornegativeresultstendtoexhibitpessimism.[50]Also,findingssuggestthattheperceptionofalackofcontrolandalowerinclinationtoparticipateinriskydecision-making(acrossvariousbehaviouralcircumstances)isassociatedwithindividualsexperiencingrelativelyhighlevelsoftraitanxiety.[48]Inthepreviousinstance,thereissupportingclinicalresearchthatlinksemotionalevaluation(ofcontrol),theanxietythatisfeltandtheoptionofriskavoidance.[48] Therearevariousviewspresentedthatanxious/fearfulemotionscausepeopletoaccessinvoluntaryresponsesandjudgmentswhenmakingdecisionsthatinvolverisk.JoshuaA.Hemmerichetal.probesdeeperintoanxietyanditsimpactonchoicesbyexploring"risk-as-feelings"whicharequick,automatic,andnaturalreactionstodangerthatarebasedonemotions.Thisnotionissupportedbyanexperimentthatengagesphysiciansinasimulatedperiloussurgicalprocedure.Itwasdemonstratedthatameasurableamountoftheparticipants'anxietyaboutpatientoutcomeswasrelatedtoprevious(experimentallycreated)regretandworryandultimatelycausedthephysicianstobeledbytheirfeelingsoveranyinformationorguidelinesprovidedduringthemocksurgery.Additionally,theiremotionallevels,adjustedalongwiththesimulatedpatientstatus,suggestthatanxietylevelandtherespectivedecisionmadearecorrelatedwiththetypeofbadoutcomethatwasexperiencedintheearlierpartoftheexperiment.[51]Similarly,anotherviewofanxietyanddecision-makingisdispositionalanxietywhereemotionalstates,ormoods,arecognitiveandprovideinformationaboutfuturepitfallsandrewards(ManerandSchmidt,2006).Whenexperiencinganxiety,individualsdrawfrompersonaljudgmentsreferredtoaspessimisticoutcomeappraisals.Theseemotionspromotebiasesforriskavoidanceandpromoterisktoleranceindecision-making.[50] Dreadrisk[edit] Itiscommonforpeopletodreadsomerisksbutnotothers:Theytendtobeveryafraidofepidemicdiseases,nuclearpowerplantfailures,andplaneaccidentsbutarerelativelyunconcernedaboutsomehighlyfrequentanddeadlyevents,suchastrafficcrashes,householdaccidents,andmedicalerrors.Onekeydistinctionofdreadfulrisksseemstobetheirpotentialforcatastrophicconsequences,[52]threateningtokillalargenumberofpeoplewithinashortperiodoftime.[53]Forexample,immediatelyafterthe11Septemberattacks,manyAmericanswereafraidtoflyandtooktheircarinstead,adecisionthatledtoasignificantincreaseinthenumberoffatalcrashesinthetimeperiodfollowingthe9/11eventcomparedwiththesametimeperiodbeforetheattacks.[54][55] Differenthypotheseshavebeenproposedtoexplainwhypeoplefeardreadrisks.First,thepsychometricparadigm[52]suggeststhathighlackofcontrol,highcatastrophicpotential,andsevereconsequencesaccountfortheincreasedriskperceptionandanxietyassociatedwithdreadrisks.Second,becausepeopleestimatethefrequencyofariskbyrecallinginstancesofitsoccurrencefromtheirsocialcircleorthemedia,theymayovervaluerelativelyrarebutdramaticrisksbecauseoftheiroverpresenceandundervaluefrequent,lessdramaticrisks.[55]Third,accordingtothepreparednesshypothesis,peoplearepronetofeareventsthathavebeenparticularlythreateningtosurvivalinhumanevolutionaryhistory.[56]Giventhatinmostofhumanevolutionaryhistorypeoplelivedinrelativelysmallgroups,rarelyexceeding100people,[57]adreadrisk,whichkillsmanypeopleatonce,couldpotentiallywipeoutone'swholegroup.Indeed,researchfound[58]thatpeople'sfearpeaksforriskskillingaround100peoplebutdoesnotincreaseiflargergroupsarekilled.Fourth,fearingdreadriskscanbeanecologicallyrationalstrategy.[59]Besideskillingalargenumberofpeopleatasinglepointintime,dreadrisksreducethenumberofchildrenandyoungadultswhowouldhavepotentiallyproducedoffspring.Accordingly,peoplearemoreconcernedaboutriskskillingyounger,andhencemorefertile,groups.[60] Anxietyandjudgmentalaccuracy[edit] Therelationshipbetweenhigherlevelsofriskperceptionand"judgmentalaccuracy"inanxiousindividualsremainsunclear(JosephI.Constans,2001).Thereisachancethat"judgmentalaccuracy"iscorrelatedwithheightenedanxiety.Constansconductedastudytoexaminehowworrypropensity(andcurrentmoodandtraitanxiety)mightinfluencecollegestudent'sestimationoftheirperformanceonanupcomingexam,andthestudyfoundthatworrypropensitypredictedsubjectiveriskbias(errorsintheirriskassessments),evenaftervarianceattributabletocurrentmoodandtraitanxietyhadbeenremoved.[49]Anotherexperimentsuggeststhattraitanxietyisassociatedwithpessimisticriskappraisals(heightenedperceptionsoftheprobabilityanddegreeofsufferingassociatedwithanegativeexperience),whilecontrollingfordepression.[48] Humanfactors[edit] Mainarticles:DecisiontheoryandProspecttheory Oneofthegrowingareasoffocusinriskmanagementisthefieldofhumanfactorswherebehaviouralandorganizationalpsychologyunderpinourunderstandingofriskbaseddecisionmaking.Thisfieldconsidersquestionssuchas"howdowemakeriskbaseddecisions?","whyareweirrationallymorescaredofsharksandterroriststhanweareofmotorvehiclesandmedications?" Indecisiontheory,regret(andanticipationofregret)canplayasignificantpartindecision-making,distinctfromriskaversion[61][62](preferringthestatusquoincaseonebecomesworseoff). Framing[63]isafundamentalproblemwithallformsofriskassessment.Inparticular,becauseofboundedrationality(ourbrainsgetoverloaded,sowetakementalshortcuts),theriskofextremeeventsisdiscountedbecausetheprobabilityistoolowtoevaluateintuitively.Asanexample,oneoftheleadingcausesofdeathisroadaccidentscausedbydrunkdriving–partlybecauseanygivendriverframestheproblembylargelyortotallyignoringtheriskofaseriousorfatalaccident. Forinstance,anextremelydisturbingevent(anattackbyhijacking,ormoralhazards)maybeignoredinanalysisdespitethefactithasoccurredandhasanonzeroprobability.Or,aneventthateveryoneagreesisinevitablemayberuledoutofanalysisduetogreedoranunwillingnesstoadmitthatitisbelievedtobeinevitable.Thesehumantendenciesforerrorandwishfulthinkingoftenaffecteventhemostrigorousapplicationsofthescientificmethodandareamajorconcernofthephilosophyofscience. Alldecision-makingunderuncertaintymustconsidercognitivebias,culturalbias,andnotationalbias:Nogroupofpeopleassessingriskisimmuneto"groupthink":acceptanceofobviouslywronganswerssimplybecauseitissociallypainfultodisagree,wherethereareconflictsofinterest. Framinginvolvesotherinformationthataffectstheoutcomeofariskydecision.Therightprefrontalcortexhasbeenshowntotakeamoreglobalperspective[64]whilegreaterleftprefrontalactivityrelatestolocalorfocalprocessing.[65] FromtheTheoryofLeakyModules[66]McElroyandSetaproposedthattheycouldpredictablyaltertheframingeffectbytheselectivemanipulationofregionalprefrontalactivitywithfingertappingormonaurallistening.[67]Theresultwasasexpected.Rightwardtappingorlisteninghadtheeffectofnarrowingattentionsuchthattheframewasignored.Thisisapracticalwayofmanipulatingregionalcorticalactivationtoaffectriskydecisions,especiallybecausedirectedtappingorlisteningiseasilydone. Psychologyofrisktaking[edit] Agrowingareaofresearchhasbeentoexaminevariouspsychologicalaspectsofrisktaking.Researcherstypicallyrunrandomisedexperimentswithatreatmentandcontrolgrouptoascertaintheeffectofdifferentpsychologicalfactorsthatmaybeassociatedwithrisktaking.Thus,positiveandnegativefeedbackaboutpastrisktakingcanaffectfuturerisktaking.Inanexperiment,peoplewhowereledtobelievetheyareverycompetentatdecisionmakingsawmoreopportunitiesinariskychoiceandtookmorerisks,whilethoseledtobelievetheywerenotverycompetentsawmorethreatsandtookfewerrisks.[68] Otherconsiderations[edit] Riskanduncertainty[edit] InhisseminalworkRisk,Uncertainty,andProfit,FrankKnight(1921)establishedthedistinctionbetweenriskanduncertainty. ...UncertaintymustbetakeninasenseradicallydistinctfromthefamiliarnotionofRisk,fromwhichithasneverbeenproperlyseparated.Theterm"risk,"aslooselyusedineverydayspeechandineconomicdiscussion,reallycoverstwothingswhich,functionallyatleast,intheircausalrelationstothephenomenaofeconomicorganization,arecategoricallydifferent....Theessentialfactisthat"risk"meansinsomecasesaquantitysusceptibleofmeasurement,whileatothertimesitissomethingdistinctlynotofthischaracter;andtherearefar-reachingandcrucialdifferencesinthebearingsofthephenomenondependingonwhichofthetwoisreallypresentandoperating....Itwillappearthatameasurableuncertainty,or"risk"proper,asweshallusetheterm,issofardifferentfromanunmeasurableonethatitisnotineffectanuncertaintyatall.We...accordinglyrestricttheterm"uncertainty"tocasesofthenon-quantitivetype.:[69] Thus,Knightianuncertaintyisimmeasurable,notpossibletocalculate,whileintheKnightiansenseriskismeasurable. AnotherdistinctionbetweenriskanduncertaintyisproposedbyDouglasHubbard:[70][12] Uncertainty:Thelackofcompletecertainty,thatis,theexistenceofmorethanonepossibility.The"true"outcome/state/result/valueisnotknown. Measurementofuncertainty:Asetofprobabilitiesassignedtoasetofpossibilities.Example:"Thereisa60%chancethismarketwilldoubleinfiveyears" Risk:Astateofuncertaintywheresomeofthepossibilitiesinvolvealoss,catastrophe,orotherundesirableoutcome. Measurementofrisk:Asetofpossibilitieseachwithquantifiedprobabilitiesandquantifiedlosses.Example:"Thereisa40%chancetheproposedoilwellwillbedrywithalossof$12millioninexploratorydrillingcosts". Inthissense,onemayhaveuncertaintywithoutriskbutnotriskwithoutuncertainty.Wecanbeuncertainaboutthewinnerofacontest,butunlesswehavesomepersonalstakeinit,wehavenorisk.Ifwebetmoneyontheoutcomeofthecontest,thenwehavearisk.Inbothcasestherearemorethanoneoutcome.Themeasureofuncertaintyrefersonlytotheprobabilitiesassignedtooutcomes,whilethemeasureofriskrequiresbothprobabilitiesforoutcomesandlossesquantifiedforoutcomes. MildVersusWildRisk[edit] BenoitMandelbrotdistinguishedbetween"mild"and"wild"riskandarguedthatriskassessmentandanalysismustbefundamentallydifferentforthetwotypesofrisk.[71]Mildriskfollowsnormalornear-normalprobabilitydistributions,issubjecttoregressiontothemeanandthelawoflargenumbers,andisthereforerelativelypredictable.Wildriskfollowsfat-taileddistributions,e.g.,Paretoorpower-lawdistributions,issubjecttoregressiontothetail(infinitemeanorvariance,renderingthelawoflargenumbersinvalidorineffective),andisthereforedifficultorimpossibletopredict.Acommonerrorinriskassessmentandanalysisistounderestimatethewildnessofrisk,assumingrisktobemildwheninfactitiswild,whichmustbeavoidedifriskassessmentandanalysisaretobevalidandreliable,accordingtoMandelbrot. Riskattitude,appetiteandtolerance[edit] Mainarticles:RiskaversionandRiskcompensation Thetermsriskattitude,appetite,andtoleranceareoftenusedsimilarlytodescribeanorganisation'sorindividual'sattitudetowardsrisk-taking.One'sattitudemaybedescribedasrisk-averse,risk-neutral,orrisk-seeking.Risktolerancelooksatacceptable/unacceptabledeviationsfromwhatisexpected.[clarificationneeded]Riskappetitelooksathowmuchriskoneiswillingtoaccept.Therecanstillbedeviationsthatarewithinariskappetite.Forexample,recentresearchfindsthatinsuredindividualsaresignificantlylikelytodivestfromriskyassetholdingsinresponsetoadeclineinhealth,controllingforvariablessuchasincome,age,andout-of-pocketmedicalexpenses.[72] Gamblingisarisk-increasinginvestment,whereinmoneyonhandisriskedforapossiblelargereturn,butwiththepossibilityoflosingitall.Purchasingalotteryticketisaveryriskyinvestmentwithahighchanceofnoreturnandasmallchanceofaveryhighreturn.Incontrast,puttingmoneyinabankatadefinedrateofinterestisarisk-averseactionthatgivesaguaranteedreturnofasmallgainandprecludesotherinvestmentswithpossiblyhighergain.Thepossibilityofgettingnoreturnonaninvestmentisalsoknownastherateofruin. Riskcompensationisatheorywhichsuggeststhatpeopletypicallyadjusttheirbehaviorinresponsetotheperceivedlevelofrisk,becomingmorecarefulwheretheysensegreaterriskandlesscarefuliftheyfeelmoreprotected.[73]Bywayofexample,ithasbeenobservedthatmotoristsdrovefasterwhenwearingseatbeltsandclosertothevehicleinfrontwhenthevehicleswerefittedwithanti-lockbrakes. Riskandautonomy[edit] Theexperienceofmanypeoplewhorelyonhumanservicesforsupportisthat'risk'isoftenusedasareasontopreventthemfromgainingfurtherindependenceorfullyaccessingthecommunity,andthattheseservicesareoftenunnecessarilyriskaverse.[74]"People'sautonomyusedtobecompromisedbyinstitutionwalls,nowit'stoooftenourriskmanagementpractices",accordingtoJohnO'Brien.[75]MichaelFischerandEwanFerlie(2013)findthatcontradictionsbetweenformalriskcontrolsandtheroleofsubjectivefactorsinhumanservices(suchastheroleofemotionsandideology)canundermineservicevalues,soproducingtensionsandevenintractableand'heated'conflict.[76] Listofrelatedbooks[edit] Thisisalistofbooksaboutriskissues. Title Author(s) Year AcceptableRisk BaruchFischhoff,SarahLichtenstein,PaulSlovic,StevenL.Derby,andRalphKeeney 1984 AgainsttheGods:TheRemarkableStoryofRisk PeterL.Bernstein 1996 Atrisk:Naturalhazards,people'svulnerabilityanddisasters PiersBlaikie,TerryCannon,IanDavis,andBenWisner 1994 BuildingSaferCommunities.RiskGovernance,SpatialPlanningandResponsestoNaturalHazards UrbanoFraPaleo 2009 DangerousEarth:Anintroductiontogeologichazards BarbaraW.Murck,BrianJ.Skinner,StephenC.Porter 1998 DisastersandDemocracy RutherfordH.Platt 1999 EarthShock:Hurricanes,volcanoes,earthquakes,tornadoesandotherforcesofnature W.AndrewRobinson 1993 HumanSystemResponsetoDisaster:AnInventoryofSociologicalFindings ThomasE.Drabek 1986 JudgmentUnderUncertainty:heuristicsandbiases DanielKahneman,PaulSlovic,andAmosTversky 1982 MappingVulnerability:disasters,development,andpeople GregBankoff,GeorgFrerks,andDorotheaHilhorst 2004 ManandSocietyinCalamity:TheEffectsofWar,Revolution,Famine,PestilenceuponHumanMind,Behavior,SocialOrganizationandCulturalLife PitirimSorokin 1942 MitigationofHazardousCometsandAsteroids MichaelJ.S.Belton,ThomasH.Morgan,NalinH.Samarasinha,DonaldK.Yeomans 2005 NaturalDisasterHotspots:aglobalriskanalysis MaxxDilley 2005 NaturalHazardMitigation:Recastingdisasterpolicyandplanning DavidGodschalk,TimothyBeatley,PhilipBerke,DavidBrower,andEdwardJ.Kaiser 1999 NaturalHazards:Earth’sprocessesashazards,disasters,andcatastrophes EdwardA.Keller,andRobertH.Blodgett 2006 NormalAccidents.Livingwithhigh-risktechnologies CharlesPerrow 1984 PayingthePrice:ThestatusandroleofinsuranceagainstnaturaldisastersintheUnitedStates HowardKunreuther,andRichardJ.Roth 1998 PlanningforEarthquakes:Risks,politics,andpolicy PhilipR.Berke,andTimothyBeatley 1992 PracticalProjectRiskManagement:TheATOMMethodology DavidHillsonandPeterSimon 2012 ReductionandPredictabilityofNaturalDisasters JohnB.Rundle,WilliamKlein,DonL.Turcotte 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Externallinks[edit] riskatWikipedia'ssisterprojectsDefinitionsfromWiktionaryMediafromCommonsNewsfromWikinewsQuotationsfromWikiquoteTextsfromWikisourceTextbooksfromWikibooksResourcesfromWikiversity Risk–TheentryoftheStanfordEncyclopediaofPhilosophy vteEnvironmentalsocialscienceFields Ecologicalanthropology Ecologicaleconomics Environmentalanthropology Environmentalcrime Environmentaleconomics Environmentalcommunication Environmentalhistory Environmentalpolitics Environmentalpsychology Environmentalsociology Humanecology Humangeography Politicalecology Regionalscience Related Agroecology Anthrozoology Behavioralgeography Communitystudies Demography Design ecological environmental Ecologicalhumanities Economics energy thermo Environmental education ethics law science studies Ethnobiology botany ecology zoology Forestry Industrialecology Integratedgeography Permaculture Ruralsociology Sexecology Science,technologyandsociety sciencestudies Sustainability science studies Systemsecology Urban ecology geography metabolism studies Applied Architecture landscape sustainable Ecopsychology Engineering ecological environmental Greencriminology Health environmental epidemiology occupational public Management environmental fisheries forest naturalresource waste Planning environmental landuse regional spatial urban Policy energy environmental Environmentportal Category Concepts Degrees Journals Researchinstitutes Scholars AuthoritycontrolGeneral IntegratedAuthorityFile(Germany) Nationallibraries UnitedStates Japan Retrievedfrom"https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Risk&oldid=1056526591" Categories:RiskActuarialscienceEnvironmentalsocialscienceconceptsHiddencategories:AllpagesneedingfactualverificationWikipediaarticlesneedingfactualverificationfromOctober2008AllarticleswithdeadexternallinksArticleswithdeadexternallinksfromApril2018ArticleswithpermanentlydeadexternallinksArticleswithshortdescriptionShortdescriptionisdifferentfromWikidataArticleslackingin-textcitationsfromApril2020Allarticleslackingin-textcitationsWikipediaarticlesneedingclarificationfromMay2017CS1maint:usesauthorsparameterPagesusingSisterprojectlinkswithdefaultsearchUsedmydatesfromJuly2019ArticleswithGNDidentifiersArticleswithLCCNidentifiersArticleswithNDLidentifiers Navigationmenu Personaltools NotloggedinTalkContributionsCreateaccountLogin Namespaces ArticleTalk Variants expanded collapsed Views ReadEditViewhistory More expanded collapsed Search Navigation MainpageContentsCurrenteventsRandomarticleAboutWikipediaContactusDonate Contribute HelpLearntoeditCommunityportalRecentchangesUploadfile Tools WhatlinkshereRelatedchangesUploadfileSpecialpagesPermanentlinkPageinformationCitethispageWikidataitem Print/export DownloadasPDFPrintableversion Inotherprojects WikimediaCommonsWikiquoteWikiversity Languages AfrikaansالعربيةAragonésAsturianuAzərbaycancaবাংলাBân-lâm-gúБеларускаяБългарскиBosanskiCatalàЧӑвашлаČeštinaDanskDeutschEestiEspañolEsperantoEuskaraفارسیFrançais한국어Հայերենहिन्दीHrvatskiBahasaIndonesiaItalianoעבריתKabɩyɛಕನ್ನಡҚазақшаLatviešuLietuviųMagyarМакедонскиBahasaMelayuNaVosaVakavitiNederlands日本語NorskbokmålPlattdüütschPolskiPortuguêsRomânăРусскийSicilianuSimpleEnglishSoomaaligaСрпски/srpskiSrpskohrvatski/српскохрватскиSuomiSvenskaதமிழ்Татарча/tatarçaไทยTürkçeУкраїнськаاردوTiếngViệt吴语粵語中文 Editlinks