The Post-Truth Condition - Blog of the APA
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Passwordrecovery Recoveryourpassword youremail Apasswordwillbee-mailedtoyou. IssuesinPhilosophyThePost-TruthCondition IssuesinPhilosophy ThePost-TruthCondition bySteveFuller November12,2018 0 Post-TruthIsMoreaboutJustificationThanTruth Itispopular,evenamongphilosophers,tothinkabout‘post-truth’asentailingadisregardforthetruth,asifthetruthwereforemostinthemindsofpeople—againincludingphilosophers–whoareinsearchofknowledge.Yet,whenPlatointheThaeatetuspresentedwhatphilosophersgenerallystillregardastheworkingdefinitionofknowledge–‘justifiedtruebelief’–hisemphasiswasonthe‘justified’ratherthanthe‘true’. Plato’sparadigmcaseisalawyerwhomanagestogetajurytoreachthecorrectjudgementinacasebutforthewrongreasons.Indeed,reflectingonthenormalpracticeoftriallawyers,Platoseemedtosuggestthatitmaybealltooeasytodrawtherightconclusionsforthewrongreasons–andthatthisissomethingthatshouldworryus. Thepost-truthconditionamountstoademystification–ifnotanoutrightrejection—ofPlato’soriginalworry,whichisabouthowonejustifiesbeliefsratherthanwhetherthebeliefsthemselvesaretrue.The‘post-truther’claimsthatworriesabouthowbeliefsarejustifiedamounttobiasing,spinningorotherwiserestrictingthecourseofinquiry. Tobesure,theremaybegoodorbadreasonsforimposingsuchconstraints,dependingonwhatevervaluesandendsarethoughttobeservedbyacquiringknowledgeofthetruth.Butthatbroadly‘axiological’discussionisnormallyoccludedbytalkof‘justification’,whichquicklyreducestoattemptstodemarcate‘rational’and‘irrational’pathstoinquiry,whichapplynotonlytothecaseathandbuttoallcasesinwhichknowledgeofthetruthmightbesought.ThemanyeffortsstartingwithBaconandDescartesintheearlymoderneratodefinea‘method’thatinprinciplemightjustifyanytruebeliefaretheculminationofthislineofthought. InPost-Truth:KnowledgeasaPowerGame,Iregardthisfixationonthejustificationofknowledgeclaimsasinvolvingtheexerciseofmodalpower,bywhichImeancontroloverwhatpeoplecometothinkispossible,impossible,necessaryandcontingent.IntheThaeatetus,thelawyerisguiltyofpresentingthecontingentasifitwerenecessary–the‘falseness’ofwhathesayscomesnotfromthefalsenessofhispremises–eachofwhichmaybepresumedtobetrue—buttheircontributiontothevalidityofhisoverallargument. IntheRepublic,Platohadhisownsignaturewayofhandlingthematter,namely,todrivethemaximumlogicalwedgebetween‘true’and‘false’sothattheycorrespondtowhatisnecessaryandwhatisimpossible.Thus,Platodepicted‘true’and‘false’ascontraries.Hecouldthendismissthepoetsandplaywrightswhoofferedalternativevisionsofrealitytothe‘philosophicallycorrect’oneasdangerouspurveyorsoffictionswhohavenoplaceinhisidealpolity. InPost-Truth,IobservethatPlato’ssignaturewaspresentintheopenappealtofearinthefaceofuncertaintyif,say,AmericanvotersfailedtovoteforHillaryClintonasPresidentorBritishvotersfailedtovotetoremainintheEuropeanUnion.‘Eithermywayornoway’,sotospeak,wasthemodalpowermessage.Rhetoricallyitamountstoconvertingastateofuncertaintyintooneofexcessivelyhighrisk,soastomakeoneselfappeartobetheembodimentofrationalityandtheopponentseemthefaceofirrationality. Itturnsoutthatthevotersfailedtobemovedbythisrhetoric,thoughitdidmanagetoconvincetheOxfordEnglishDictionarytomake‘post-truth’2016’swordoftheyear.Asofthiswriting,votersinbothcountrieshaveyettobepersuadedthattheymadethewrongdecision.Theymaystillchangetheirminds,ofcourse.Butit’sunlikelythatPlato’srhetoricofimminentdangerwillplayarole,giventheamountoftimethathasnowpassedforUSandUKvoterstogetusedtooutcomesthathadsurprisedallsides. Incontrast,Bacon,Descartesandotherpromotersofthescientificmethodinthemodernerahavedrawnthelogicalbattlelinesformodalpowermorenarrowly.Forthem,‘true’and‘false’correspondtowhatisnecessaryandwhatiscontingent–amatterofcontradiction,notcontrariety. ForBacon,theartofexperimentisultimatelyabouttryingtoconstructacaseinwhichoneoftwohypothesesthatpredictthesamethingineveryothercaseendsupfailingtodosointhetestcase.Suchanexperimentis‘crucial’ifitmanagestorevealthecontingentpretendertonecessity.KarlPopper,arguablyBacon’ssmartestreadersinceKant,promotedthisstrategytoaworld-view.Forhispart,DescartesproposedthatGod’sexistenceensuredthatsuchacaseexisted,evenifonlyinGod’smind,sowedon’tneedtoworryaboutan‘evildemon’whoseseamlessrepresentationofrealitymightbeforeverfoolingusintomistakingthecontingentforthenecessary. NeitherBaconnorDescartesdeniedtheprimafacieverisimilitudeofmostpeople’sclaimstoknowledgebuttheyinquiredfurtheraboutwhethersuchso-called‘knowledge’wasacquiredbytheappropriatemeans.Ifthealleged‘knowledge’simplyreflectsanalignmentbetweenthetruthandamodusoperandithatisitselfnotespeciallytruth-oriented,thenitamountstoanaccidentalstumblinguponthetruth,notknowledgeatall:acaseofepistemiccontingencynotnecessity. Considercasesinwhichastrologerscorrectlypredictaperson’sfate,araindancethatisfollowedbyrainor,moregenerally,causationthatisclaimedonthebackofcorrelation.Inthehistoryofmodernphilosophy,‘sensation’or‘senseperception’hasbeenthecatchalltermforallthesesimulacraofknowledge,withthestressplacedonwhatpeoplereceivepassivelyfromtheworldratherthanactivelyconstructforthemselves.FollowingHume,ascepticalspinon‘induction’castthesesimulacraasapseudo-method.Andinourmoreexplicitly‘cognitivist’age,thesamephenomenaprovideevidenceof‘confirmationbias’. Post-TruthIsabouttheGamingSpirit Truthbetold,‘confirmationbias’isaverypost-truthwayoftalkingaboutnotonlythesortsofinferencesthatBaconandDescarteswouldregardasmerelypseudo-justificatorybutalsotheonesthattheywouldacceptasjustificatory.Theword‘bias’suggeststhattheinferencesconcernedarebothmotivatedandrestrictive.Thesearepredicatesthatthepost-trutherishappytoworkwithbecausetheysuggesttheworkingsofpowerovertheimagination.Themostnaturalwaytoappreciatethispointisinthecontextofgames. Inagamingspirit,wewouldsaythatallofthecontingent‘unjustified’waysofbelievingwhatistrueconstitute‘cheating’becausethoseinvolvedhadnotplayedbytherules.Butatthatpointthepost-trutherasks:Whyplaythisgameratherthansomeothertodeterminethetruth?Whatissogreataboutthissetofrules? Torespondbymakingexclusivereferencetotheassociatedbenefitsdeliveredbytheestablishedgame–thatis,withoutreferencetoitscorrespondingcostsoracost-benefitbalancesheetofalternativegames–istoopenoneselftothechargeofquestion-begging. Aneconomistwouldsimplysaythatitisafailuretofactorin‘opportunitycosts’.Andperhapsthatmakeseconomiststheoriginalpost-truthers.Putinawaythatevenphilosopherswouldfindhardtodispute,thepost-truthconditiontakesveryseriouslythatspecificvaluesareembeddedinanysetofrules,whichservetobiastheresultinggametowardsplayerswithcertainskillsanddispositions.Inshort,confirmationbiasisinevitableinwhatevermodeofjustificationoneadopts. Considerthewidespreadjudgementthathomoeopathictreatmentsareinferiortonormal‘allopathic’medicalonesformostailments.Whenmedicalscientistsconducttherelevanttests,homoeopathytendstoperformquitepoorly.Suchtestsnormallyfocusontherecoveryrateofthephysicalsourceoftheailmentundergoingtreatment.However,homoeopathscomplainthatthisbegsthequestion,sincetheirbrandofmedicineregardsthephysician-patientinteractionasconstitutiveoftreatment,somethingwhichmedicalscientistsoftendismissasa‘placeboeffect’.Suchscientiststhinkaboutmedicaltreatmentasbeingmainlyaboutaspecificpartoraspectofthebodyratherthanthewholeperson.Thus,homoeopathsarguethatafairtestoftheirtreatmentsrequirestheregisteringofsubjects’ownsenseofwell-being,independentofthephysicalstateoftheirailments. WhatIhavejustdescribedisadisputeabouttherulesofthegame–inthiscase,the‘medicalscience’game—intermsofwhich‘winners’,‘losers’,‘fairplay’and‘cheating’arethendefined.Tobesure,game-talkwasmorecommoninphilosophicaldiscourseacoupleofgenerationsago,whenthelaterWittgensteinwasfashionableandthe‘languagegame’wastheparadigmaticwaytoaddressmattersofjustificationinnearlyallbranchesofphilosophy.Atroughlythesametime,whateconomistscall‘gametheory’–arguablythemostlastingtheoreticalcontributionoftheColdWar—wasintroducedintophilosophyataconceptuallygeneralized,largelynon-mathematicallevelviaworkssuchasDavidLewis’Convention.However,WittgensteinandLewisweren’tquiteplayingthesamegame. Wittgenstein’ssenseofgamehadbeenclearlyparasiticontheanthropologicaltaskofunderstandingwhatpassesasnormalinanaliensocietythatonedoesn’twishtodisturbunnecessarily.Thatlastclausemadesenseinthelateimperialperiodwhentherewasastrategicadvantagetoallowthenativesconducttheirlivesintheirownwaysaslongastheywerewillingtoplayonsidewiththeimperialistsintheirgamesagainstotherimperialists.ThatwastheRealpolitikthatgaverisetomodernrelativism.Incontrast,gametheoryservedtoalertphilosopherstotheunintendedifnotparadoxicalconsequencesofdecidingtoplayonegameratherthananotherinanopen-endedsituation.Herethereismoretoplayfor,sotospeak,thanintheWittgensteiniansenseofgame. Theobjectiveoftheimperialgamehadbeentooccupystrategicallyvaluablespaces,verymuchinthespiritoftwo-dimensionalboardgames,whichisreflectedinthetypicallayoutofa‘warroom’.However,theColdWaropenedupwhatmightbecalledthe‘meta-gamingimaginary’.Thefocusshiftedawayfromplayersacceptingtherulesofapre-existinggametotheirdecidingtherulesbywhichtheyarethenconfiguredintermsoftheirrelativeadvantageinplay.ThemostexemplaryphilosophicallegacyofthisshiftinperspectivehasbeenJohnRawls’‘originalposition’inATheoryofJustice. ThisshiftinperspectivereflectedthefactthatboththeUSAandtheUSSRhadmadeuniversalclaimsfortheirownversionsofsuchpivotalconceptsas‘democracy’,‘freedom’,‘equality’and‘justice’.Tobesure,theseversionsdrewlargelyfromthesamesource,Westernpoliticalhistoryandphilosophy.Yetontheirfacetheconceptionsproposedbythetwosidesweremutuallyexclusive: Oneside’sversionofdemocracywastheother’sversionoftyranny.Whotobelieve?ThereasontheColdWarwasoftencalledan‘ideological’strugglewasthatthebattlewasultimatelyovertheframeofreferenceinwhichoneshouldunderstandthesekeyconcepts. IntheearlydaysoftheColdWar,theScottishphilosopherW.B.Galliespokeof‘essentiallycontestedconcepts’tocapturethepotentialofcertainpoliticallyorreligiouslychargedideastostymierationaldebatebecausetheyarepronetoincommensurableinterpretations.However,Galliebelievedthatrelativelyfewconceptswereessentiallycontested.MostweremoreorlessgovernedlikeWittgensteinianlanguagegames.Inthepost-truthcondition,allconceptsaretreatedas‘essentiallycontested’. AndWhatBecomesofTruthinthePost-TruthCondition? Bycontrast,inwhatinPostTruthIcallthe‘truthcondition’,thereisagreementontheframeofreferenceinwhichkeyconceptsareinterpreted.Thisthenallowsaspecificsetofrulestogovernagameinwhichopposingplayersaredisposedtoagreeontheoutcomesandtheinterveningjudgementcallsonmattersofplay.Thescientificmethodhasbeenhistoricallyassociatedwiththisstate-of-affairs,whichideallywouldalsofunctionasthe‘gameofgames’governingeverything.(HilaryPutnamcameclosetothisideainthe1970sinhisaccountofscience’sroleinfixingthereferenceoftermsaspartofthe‘divisionoflinguisticlabour’.)However,aswehaveseeninthecaseofhomoeopathy,thisiseasiersaidthandone. Tobesure,thedreamofanultimate‘truthcondition’remainedquitestrongduringtheColdWar.TheAmericansociologistDanielBellfamouslypredictedan‘endofideology’asscientificthinkinganditstechnologicalapplicationsincreasinglypopulatedhumanity’sdecision-makingenvironments.LaterBellspokeofourlivingina‘post-industrialsociety’,inwhichtechnocracywouldbecometheacceptedfaceofpolitics.HiswasaworldinwhichHillaryClintonwouldhaveeasilybeatenTrumpandtheUKwouldhavevotedtoremainintheEuropeanUnion.Socloseyetsofarfromtrue.Whatwentwrong? Tocutalongstoryshort,‘technocracy’didindeedbecome‘thenameofthegame’butitwasnotpracticedinthesortofwaythatBellhadenvisaged.Histechnocraticutopiahadbeenanupdatedversionofalogicalpositivist-stylevision,oneinwhichideologicaldifferencesareultimatelyresolvedbyexchanginginflammatorywordsforcomputabledatapoints.Butinstead,whathappenedwasthattheideologicaldifferencesbetweentheUSAandtheUSSRweredisplacedbyagamewhichforcedthemtoplayonthesamesidebecausebothwereequallythreatenedbyanegativeoutcome. Ireferhere,ofcourse,tothenucleararmsrace,whichfeaturedtheprospectof‘mutuallyassureddestruction’.Itbecamethedefacto‘gameofgames’,whichendedoncethecostofcontributingresourcestoitbankruptedtheUSSR.Thus,theoriginalideologicaldifferencesbetweentheUSAandtheUSSRwereneverresolvedintheirownterms,strictlyspeaking.ThishelpstoexplainthecontinuedunconsummatedMarxisantyearningamongWesternacademicswhoarecriticalofAmericanforeignpolicy,boththenandnow. WhatBellultimatelyfailedtosee–atleastfromapost-truthstandpoint–isthattheColdWarshiftedthemodalbalanceofpowerfromcontingencybacktoimpossibility,fromBacontoPlato.Thus,thefearofmutuallyassureddestructionfocusedmindsonbothsidesoftheIronCurtainon‘thinkingtheunthinkable’,torecallHermanKahn’sresonantphrasefromtheperiod.Itenabledanunprecedentedglobalalignmentofscientificandpoliticalauthority–thatis,untiloneofthekeycombatantsfoundthatitwasnolongereconomicallysustainable.Inourownday,manywouldseetheprospectofanimminentclimateapocalypseasthenewtruthcondition,wherebyallsidescometogethertoavoidthesamenegativeoutcome.Perhapsallweneedistherightgametomakethishappen. SteveFuller SteveFullerisAugusteComteProfessorofSocialEpistemologyintheDepartmentofSociologyattheUniversityofWarwick,UK.Originallytrainedinhistoryandphilosophyofscience,heistheauthorofmorethantwentybooks.Hismostrecentworkhasbeenconcernedwiththefutureofhumanity(or‘Humanity2.0’).HislatestbooksareKnowledge:ThePhilosophicalQuestinHistory(Routledge,2015); TheAcademicCaesar:UniversityLeadershipisHard (Sage,2016)and Post-Truth:KnowledgeasaPowerGame (Anthem,2018).Heiscurrentlywritingabook,tentativelyentitled‘NietzscheanMeditations:LateNightThoughtsoftheLastHuman’. 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