Taiwan watches China as China and the world watch Ukraine

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) China is closely watching the events in Ukraine to evaluate its own strategy towards Taiwan, the island's foreign ... TaiwanwatchesChinaasChinaandtheworldwatchUkraineByBradLendon,CNNUpdated1017GMT(1817HKT)March8,2022ProtestersagainsttheRussianinvasionofUkrainegatherinfrontoftheRepresentativeOfficeofRussiainTaipei,Taiwan,February26,2022.Seoul,SouthKorea(CNN)ChinaiscloselywatchingtheeventsinUkrainetoevaluateitsownstrategytowardsTaiwan,theisland'sforeignministerhaswarned."WhenwewatchtheeventsinUkraineevolving...wearealsowatchingverycarefullywhatChinamaydotoTaiwan,"JosephWusaidduringapressconferenceMonday.SomeanalystshavepointedtoparallelsbetweenRussia'sdesignsonUkraineandfearsoverthefutureofTaiwan--aself-governingislanddemocracythatBeijingclaimsasitsownandhasnotruledouttakingbyforce."ThedangerwillbethattheChineseleadersthinkthattheWesternreactiontotheRussianaggressionisweakandnotcoherent,andnothavinganyimpact.TheChinesemighttakethatasapositivelesson,"addedWuwhilediscussingadditionalstepsthatTaiwanistakingtohelpUkraine.AskedifheisconcernedthecrisisinUkrainemakesitmoreorlesslikelyChinawillmakeasimilarmove,Wusaidtheworldhasseenan"expansionofauthoritarianism,"pointingtothejointdeclarationissuedbyChinaandRussialastmonth.ReadMore"PresidentXiJinpinghasalsospokenabouttherejuvenationoftheChinesenation,includingbuildingupmilitarilyaroundChina,"Wusaid.ChinahasrepeatedlyrefusedtocondemnRussianactionsinUkraineandonMondaythecountry'sForeignMinisterWangYidescribedrelationsbetweenBeijingandMoscow"rocksolid."AllieddemocraciesWu'scommentsMondayechoedremarkshemadeinaninterviewwithCNNlastyearinwhichhecharacterizedTaiwanasacheckonChina'sambitions."It'saboutChineseauthoritarianismtryingtoexpanditsowninfluence...Farbeyonditsborders,evenintotheWesternhemisphere,"WusaidinJune2021."Theywanttoexercisetheirauthoritarianruleandimposetheauthoritarianinternationalorder."OnMonday,UkrainianPresidentVolodymyrZelenskywarnedWesterngovernmentsthatRussia'swarwillnotstopatthebordersofhiscountry--andanattackonfreedomsinUkrainewillaffecttherestoftheworld."Weareinthiszoneoffreedom.Andwhenthelimitsofrightsandfreedomsarebeingviolatedandsteppedon,thenyouhavetoprotectus.Becausewewillcomefirst.Youwillcomesecond,"ZelenskytoldABCNews.ZelenskycalledonNATOandtheWesttoprovidegreatersupporttoUkraine,whichhasreceivedasurgeinmilitaryaidinrecentweeks,includinganti-aircraftandanti-tankmissiles.It'sthekindofsupporttheUShasbeensupplyingtoTaiwanfordecadesundertheTaiwanRelationsAct,whichassuresWashingtonwillhelparmtheislandinthefaceofpossiblemilitaryaggressionbutdoesnotcommitittoactuallydefendingtheisland,likeitwouldwithitstreatyalliesinNATOorJapanorAustralia.Russia'sattackonUkrainerevealspoliticalfaultlinesinAsiaButWu,Taiwan'sforeignminister,onMondaynotedthatdemocraciesaroundtheworldhavecometogetherinsupportofUkraine."I'msurethatwillbeafactorfortheChinesetotakeintotheircalculus,"Wuadded.ChinahasmadeclearitssupportsMoscow'scalltocurtailNATOexpansion,withanalystsnotingitseesparallelswiththeorganization'sEuropeanfootprintandtheincreasinglyjoinedupapproachofUSalliesinAsia--withWang,theChineseforeignminister,onMondaydenouncingWashington'sstrategyofestablishing"anIndo-PacificversionofNATO"aimedatmaintaining"theUS-ledsystemofhegemony.""(ChinaandRussia)sharetwoprimarystrategicinterests,"saidSteveTsang,directorofSOASChinaInstituteattheUniversityofLondon."OneistotaketheAmericangloballeadershipdownanotchortwo.Thesecondistomaketheworldsafeforauthoritarianism."AdifferentdynamicBeijinghasdismissedcomparisonsbetweenthesituationinUkraineanditsownclaimsonTaiwan,withWangreiteratingonMondaythat"TaiwanisaninalienablepartofChina'sterritory,andtheTaiwanquestionisentirelyChina'sinternalaffair."Taiwan,meanwhile,hasmadesuretheworldknowsitstandswithUkraine.TaiwanPresidentTsaiIng-wenhassaidtheislandcould"empathize"withUkraine'ssituationgivenitsexperiencewith"militarythreatsandintimidationfromChina."ThegovernmentinTaipeirecentlyannounceditwoulddonate27tonsofmedicalsuppliestoUkraine,andhundredsofpeoplegatheredinTaipeionSundaytoshowtheirsupporttothegovernmentinKyiv.China'sleadersmaybewatchingUkrainewithaneyeonTaiwanAmongthedemonstratorswereUkrainianslivinginTaiwanandTaiwaneselawmakers.TheywavedUkraineandTaiwanflags,andheldplacardsreading"nowar"and"TaiwanstandswithUkraine."ButinthePacific,itmaymattermorewhostandswithTaiwan.Andthereanalystsnotethatthedynamicisconsiderablydifferent."IfChinaweretogaincontrolofTaiwan,thismorethananythingelsewouldhelpitestablishregionalhegemony.ChineseleadersunderstandthattotheUnitedStatesthestakesaredifferentanditsresponsewouldlikelybeverydifferent,"saidDavidSacks,aresearchfellowattheCouncilonForeignRelationsinNewYork.KeytothatmaybethestanceofoneofWashington'smostimportantmilitaryallies,Japan.ThecountryhastakenafirmlineonTaiwaninrecentyears,notingthesituationsurroundingtheislandisimportantforJapan'ssecurity,accordingtoagovernmentdefensewhitepaperreleasedJuly.InaninterviewwithCNNlastyear,JapaneseDefenseMinisterNobuoKishimadecleartheconnection."What'shappeninginTaiwanisdirectlylinkedtoJapan,"hesaid,notingtheislandsitsastridehiscountry's"energylifeline.""NinetypercentofenergythatJapanusesisimportedthroughtheareasaroundTaiwan,"Kishisaid."WhatcouldhappeninTaiwancouldlikelybeanissueforJapan,andinthatcase,Japanwillhavetotakethenecessaryresponsetothatsituation,"Kishisaid.ChineseForeignMinisterWangonMondayremindedTokyoofthesensitivityandimportanceofTaiwaninChina-Japanrelations,callingtheissue"foundational"tomutualtrust."Ifthefoundationisshaken,whateveraboveitcannotstand,"hewarned."WehopethatJapanwillhonortheseriesofsolemncommitments...toavoidseriousdisruptiontoourbilateraltiesinthefuture."CNN'sSimoneMcCarthycontributedreportingfromHongKongandWillRipleyandEricCheungcontributedfromTaipei,Taiwan.