IMF raises GDP forecast for Taiwan to 5.9%

China is expected to grow by 8 percent in 2021 and 5.6 percent in 2022, both down 0.1 percentage points from the IMF's July update, while Japan ... BusinessIMFraisesGDPforecastforTaiwanto5.9%10/12/202109:06PMListenLinkWhatsappRedditLineEmailToactivatethetext-to-speechservice,pleasefirstagreetotheprivacypolicybelow. CNAfilephoto Washington,Oct.12(CNA)TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)hasraiseditsforecastforTaiwan'sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthfor2021despiteaslightdownwardrevisionforglobaleconomicgrowth.InaWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO)reportissuedonTuesday,titled"RecoveringDuringaPandemic,"theIMFraiseditsprevious2021GDPgrowthforecastforTaiwanfromearlierthisyearby1.2percentagepointsto5.9percent.Theestimatewasinlinewiththe5.88percentannualGDPgrowthforecastofTaiwan'sDirectorate-GeneralofBudget,AccountingandStatistics(DGBAS)inAugust.TheIMFalsoraiseditsforecastforTaiwan'sGDPgrowthin2022to3.3percent,up0.3percentagepointsfromitsAprilestimate,butslightlylowerthantheDGBAS'3.69percentestimate.Thebullishforecastcontrasted,however,withtheIMF'sdownwardrevisionofitspreviousprojectionof2021globalgrowthby0.1percentagepointsto5.9percent."Thedownwardrevisionfor2021reflectsadowngradeforadvancedeconomies—inpartduetosupplydisruptions—andforlow-incomedevelopingcountries,largelyduetoworseningpandemicdynamics,"thereportsaid.ItdidnotspecificallyaddresswhyTaiwan'sgrowthforecastwasrevisedupwards,thoughanimprovedexportpicturewaslikelythemainreason,saidDachrahnWu(吳大任),thedirectoroftheResearchCenterforTaiwanEconomicDevelopmentatNationalCentralUniversity."Taiwan'sexportshavebeenstrongthisyearandwillbethedrivingforcebehindeconomicgrowth,"hesaid,thoughimprovedconsumptioncouldalsohelp.DomesticdemandwashurtbyalocalCOVID-19outbreakfromMaytoJuly,Wusaid,buttherecentlooseningofrestrictionsanddistributionofspendingvouchersbythegovernmentthismonthcouldreviveconsumption.IftherearenofurtherCOVIDoutbreaks,theriseindomesticdemandinthefourthquartercouldoffsetorevenovercomethegapinconsumptioninMayandJune,Wuargued."Itisquitelikelythatthisyear'sgrowthratewillexceed6percent,"hepredicted.ForSouthKorea,Singapore,andHongKong—thethreeothereconomiesthatalongwithTaiwanmakeupthe"FourAsianTigers—theIMFforecastgrowthof4.3percent,6percent,and6.4percentrespectively.In2022,thesamethreeeconomiesareexpectedtogrowby3.3percent,3.2percent,and3.5percent,respectively,itsaid.Chinaisexpectedtogrowby8percentin2021and5.6percentin2022,bothdown0.1percentagepointsfromtheIMF'sJulyupdate,whileJapanisexpectedtogrowby2.4percentand3.2percentin2021and2022,respectively.TheUnitedStatesisexpectedtogrowby6percentin2021,down1percentagepointfromtheIMFJulyupdate,and5.2percentin2022,up0.3percentagepoints.Amongothereconomicindicators,thereportpredictedthatTaiwan'sconsumerpriceindex(CPI),amajorgaugeofinflation,wouldrise1.6percentthisyearand1.5percentnextyear,whiletheunemploymentrateisexpectedtobe3.8percentthisyearand3.6percentnextyear.NationalCentralUniversity'sWucautionedthatthecongestionatglobalportsandsupplychaindisruptionscouldincreasetheproductioncostsofmanufacturersinvariouscountriesinthefourthquarter.That,alongwithanincreaseintheminimumwagenextyear,couldfuelinflationarypressuresinTaiwannextyear,Wusaid.(ByChiangChin-yehandKenWang) Enditem/HY/ls RelatedNewsSept.23:CentralbankraisesTaiwan's2021GDPgrowthforecastto5.75%Sept.22:ADBupgradesforecastforTaiwan's2021GDPgrowthto6.2%July31:TaiwanGDPgrows7.47%inQ2despiteCOVID-190:00/0:00LatestBusinessTaiwansharesendhighertocloseabove17,500points03/21/202205:44PMBusinessTSMCexecsboughtcompanysharesinFebruaryamidforeignsell-off03/21/202205:01PMBusinessU.S.dollarcloseshigheronTaipeiforexmarket03/21/202204:14PMSocietyTaiwanreports98newCOVID-19cases,including5domestic03/21/202202:59PMBusinessUMCmumonU.S.plantreportbutemphasizesproductiondiversification03/21/202202:22PMMoreWevalueyourprivacy.FocusTaiwan(CNA)usestrackingtechnologiestoprovidebetterreadingexperiences,butitalsorespectsreaders'privacy.ClickheretofindoutmoreaboutFocusTaiwan'sprivacypolicy.Whenyouclosethiswindow,itmeansyouagreewiththispolicy.Gotit.Learnmore