World Bank Global Economic Prospects

The World Bank Global Economic Prospects Report shows that the global economy is expected to expand 5.6% in 2021, the fastest post-recession ... WhoWeAre News Thispagein: EN dropdown Español Français العربية Русский 中文 Български Português Српски 日本語 Thispagein:_ English Español Français العربية Русский 中文 Български Português Српски 日本語 dropdown PRESSRELEASE June8,2021 GlobalRecoveryStrongbutUnevenasManyDevelopingCountriesStrugglewiththePandemic’sLastingEffects Email Print Tweet Share Share LinkedIn Digg 人人网 StumbleUpon Delicious 新浪微博 Outputtoremainbelowpre-COVIDtrendsdespiterobustreboundbyUSandChinaWASHINGTON,June8,2021—Theglobaleconomyisexpectedtoexpand5.6%in2021,thefastestpost-recessionpacein80years,largelyonstrongreboundsfromafewmajoreconomies.However,manyemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiescontinuetostrugglewiththeCOVID-19pandemicanditsaftermath,theWorldBanksaysinitsJune2021GlobalEconomicProspects.Despitetherecovery,globaloutputwillbeabout2%belowpre-pandemicprojectionsbytheendofthisyear.Percapitaincomelosseswillnotbeunwoundby2022forabouttwo-thirdsofemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Amonglow-incomeeconomies,wherevaccinationhaslagged,theeffectsofthepandemichavereversedpovertyreductiongainsandaggravatedinsecurityandotherlong-standingchallenges.“Whiletherearewelcomesignsofglobalrecovery,thepandemiccontinuestoinflictpovertyandinequalityonpeopleindevelopingcountriesaroundtheworld,”saidWorldBankGroupPresidentDavidMalpass.“Globallycoordinatedeffortsareessentialtoacceleratevaccinedistributionanddebtrelief,particularlyforlow-incomecountries.Asthehealthcrisiseases,policymakerswillneedtoaddressthepandemic’slastingeffectsandtakestepstospurgreen,resilient,andinclusivegrowthwhilesafeguardingmacroeconomicstability.”Amongmajoreconomies,U.S.growthisprojectedtoreach6.8%thisyear,reflectinglarge-scalefiscalsupportandtheeasingofpandemicrestrictions.Growthinotheradvancedeconomiesisalsofirming,buttoalesserextent.Amongemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies,Chinaisanticipatedtoreboundto8.5%thisyear,reflectingthereleaseofpent-updemand.Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesasagroupareforecasttoexpand6%thisyear,supportedbyhigherdemandandelevatedcommodityprices.However,therecoveryinmanycountriesisbeingheldbackbyaresurgenceofCOVID-19casesandlaggingvaccinationprogress,aswellasthewithdrawalofpolicysupportinsomeinstances.ExcludingChina,thereboundinthisgroupofcountriesisanticipatedtobeamoremodest4.4%.Therecoveryamongemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesisforecasttomoderateto4.7%in2022.Evenso,gainsinthisgroupofeconomiesarenotsufficienttorecouplossesexperiencedduringthe2020recession,andoutputin2022isexpectedtobe4.1%belowpre-pandemicprojections.Percapitaincomeinmanyemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesisalsoexpectedtoremainbelowpre-pandemiclevels,andlossesareanticipatedtoworsendeprivationsassociatedwithhealth,educationandlivingstandards.MajordriversofgrowthhadbeenexpectedtolosemomentumevenbeforetheCOVID-19crisis,andthetrendislikelytobeamplifiedbythescarringeffectsofthepandemic.Growthinlow-incomeeconomiesthisyearisanticipatedtobetheslowestinthepast20yearsotherthan2020,partlyreflectingtheveryslowpaceofvaccination.Low-incomeeconomiesareforecasttoexpandby2.9%in2021beforepickingupto4.7%in2022.Thegroup’soutputlevelin2022isprojectedtobe4.9%lowerthanpre-pandemicprojections.AnanalyticalsectionoftheGlobalEconomicProspectsreportexamineshowloweringtradecostssuchascumbersomelogisticsandborderprocedurescouldhelpbolstertherecoveryamongemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesbyfacilitatingtrade.Despiteadeclineoverthepast15years,tradecostsremainalmostone-halfhigherinthesecountriesthaninadvancedeconomies,inlargepartduetohighershippingandlogisticscosts.Effortstostreamlinetradeprocessesandclearancerequirements,toenablebettertransportinfrastructureandgovernance,encouragegreaterinformationsharing,andstrengthencompetitionindomesticlogistics,retail,andwholesaletradecouldyieldconsiderablecostsavings.“Linkagesthroughtradeandglobalvaluechainshavebeenavitalengineofeconomicadvancementfordevelopingeconomiesandliftedmanypeopleoutofpoverty.However,atcurrenttrends,globaltradegrowthissettoslowdownoverthenextdecade,”WorldBankGroupVicePresidentforEquitableGrowthandFinancialInstitutionsIndermitGillsaid.“AsdevelopingeconomiesrecoverfromtheCOVID-19pandemic,cuttingtradecostscancreateanenvironmentconducivetore-engaginginglobalsupplychainsandreignitingtradegrowth.”Anothersectionofthereportprovidesananalysisofthereboundinglobalinflationthathasaccompaniedrecoveringeconomicactivity.The2020globalrecessionbroughtaboutthesmallestinflationdeclineandthefastestsubsequentinflationupturnofthelastfiveglobalrecessions.Whileglobalinflationislikelytocontinuetoriseovertheremainderofthisyear,inflationisexpectedtoremainwithintargetrangesinmostinflation-targetingcountries.Inthoseemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomieswhereinflationrisesabovetarget,amonetarypolicyresponsemaynotbewarrantedprovideditistemporaryandinflationexpectationsremainwell-anchored.“Higherglobalinflationmaycomplicatethepolicychoicesofemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesincomingmonthsassomeoftheseeconomiesstillrelyonexpansionarysupportmeasurestoensureadurablerecovery,”WorldBankProspectsGroupDirectorAyhanKosesaid.“Unlessrisksfromrecord-highdebtareaddressed,theseeconomiesremainvulnerabletofinancialmarketstressshouldinvestorrisksentimentdeteriorateasaresultofinflationpressuresinadvancedeconomies.”Risingfoodpricesandacceleratingaggregateinflationmayalsocompoundchallengesassociatedwithfoodinsecurityinlow-incomecountries.Policymakersinthesecountriesshouldensurethatrisinginflationratesdonotleadtoade-anchoringofinflationexpectationsandresistsubsidiesorpricecontrolstoavoidputtingupwardpressureonglobalfoodprices.Instead,policiesfocusingonscalingupsocialsafetynetprograms,improvinglogisticsandclimateresilienceoflocalfoodsupplywouldbemorehelpful.DownloadGlobalEconomicProspectshere.RegionalOutlooks:EastAsiaandPacific:Growthintheregionisprojectedtoaccelerateby7.7%in2021and5.3%in2022.Formore,seeregionaloverview.EuropeandCentralAsia:Theregionaleconomyisforecasttogrowby3.9%thisyearand3.9%nextyear.Formore,seeregionaloverview.LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean:Regionaleconomicactivityisexpectedtogrowby5.2%in2021and2.9%.Formore,seeregionaloverview.MiddleEastandNorthAfrica:EconomicactivityintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaisforecasttoadvanceby2.4%thisyearand3.5%nextyear.Formore,seeregionaloverview.SouthAsia:Economicactivityintheregionisprojectedtoexpandby6.8%in2021and6.8%in2022.Formore,seeregionaloverview.Sub-SaharanAfrica:Economicactivityintheregionisoncoursetoriseby2.8%in2021and3.3%in2022.Formore,seeregionaloverview.    PRESSRELEASENO: 2021/156/EFI Contacts InWashington: MarkFelsenthal (202)458-0051 [email protected] ForBroadcastRequests: DavidYoung (202)473-4691 [email protected] RELATED WORLDBANK ForewordbyWorldBankGroupPresidentDavidMalpassReportwebsiteReportdownloadDownloadreportdataDownloadallcharts(zip)UPDATE:January2022pressrelease Api Api